After a 14-year-long wait, two-time premier Nawaz Sharif has set eyes on the top executive office of the country and is, with every passing moment, heralding some successes for his party. But at the same time, he along with his comrades, is afraid of the possible spoiler effect of Imran Khan, who is more than confident that he will defeat the parties which he dubs the representatives of the status quo.
Nawaz Sharif, after executing the policy of peaceful co-existence with the PPP’s central government in the last five years to save the PML-N government in the Punjab, is challenging the Zardari-led party and, so far, has outmaneuvered the PPP leadership as far as the winning of support from the smaller political entities and other electables is concerned.
“Yes, Imran can play the role of a spoiler to divide the PML-N’s vote bank, which can help the PPP, like Qazi Hussain Ahmed’s Islamic Front did in the 1993 elections,” admits PML-N’s deputy secretary general Ahsan Iqbal.
The Nawaz League is selling the performance of the Punjab government while the apparently embattled People’s Party has set hopes on Khan’s tsunami. The Nawaz-led faction of the Muslim League is least concerned about the work-in-progress electoral alliance – despite a two-year-long courtship – of the PPP and the PML-Q as N-leaders claim that the PML-Q’s strong men would be contesting polls from the PML-N platform. The PML-N has one nightmare and that is about the potential damage which Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf (PTI) may inflict to the PML-N’s candidates, particularly in the urban constituencies of Punjab.
“The PTI factor will damage the PML-N but the extent of damage is unpredictable … the PML-N, through laptop and ujala schemes, has won back a segment of the youth, which was previously affiliated with the PTI,” says Dr Hassan Askari Rizvi.
PML-N central leader Ahsan Iqbal still considers the PPP as the main rival of the Muslim League and says, “the PPP is an old party with a broad-based fixed vote bank. Imran will just play the role of the spoiler.” On the other hand, PTI leader Dr Shahzad Wasim, a former state minister for interior, claims that the PTI would receive unprecedented support from the masses “and we will not just play the role of the spoiler.”
The beleaguered PPP, which is, so far, striving hard to control defections from its and its allies’ ranks, is primarily banking on the PTI as the PPP leaders claim confidently that Khan would surely split PML-N’s vote bank, which will consequently help the PPP secure seats. Nadeem Afzal Chan of the PPP rebuts the impression that the PPP will only get benefit from the Khan factor. “The PPP will pose tough times to the PML-N in the Southern and Central Punjab; our vote bank is still intact in the Southern Punjab. The deletion of bogus votes from the electoral rolls, which were actually registered by the Nazims during Musharraf regime or earlier, during Nawaz’s governments, will help the PPP a lot as they were the votes registered to benefit the Muslim League, be it Q or N,” he claimed.
The independent analysts consider the PML-N a favourite, particularly in the Punjab. “The PML-N has a clear edge over the PPP in Punjab. The PPP thinks that by default, it will benefit from the Khan factor,” said Dr Hassan Askari Rizvi. Senator Mushahidullah Khan, PML-N central secretary information, terms the PPP the real rival of his party saying, “Our main competition will be with the PPP, which, in my opinion, will be the second largest political party in terms of securing seats.” Rasul Bakhsh Rais does not agree with the PML-N lawmaker and thinks that “the PTI will prove a serious threat to the Sharifs, particularly in the urban constituencies of Punjab”.
On the other hand, the PML-N leaders, citing examples of recently held by-polls, claim that the PPP’s math is flawed. They argue that the presence of PTI’s supported candidates (though they were not the official ones) in the by-elections, could not dent PML-N’s vote bank and majority of vacant seats of the national and provincial assemblies were won by its candidates.
Without the slightest hesitation, the PPP’s Firdous Ashiq Awan admits that a strong PTI would make the PPP stronger. “Two types of votes are cast in the country: pro or anti-PPP. The division of the anti-PPP vote bank will ultimately benefit us. In the past, whenever the anti-Bhutto vote was divided, the PPP secured a victory,” she argued.
Meanwhile, after carefully weighing all available options, PML-Q leaders (former MNAs, Senators, MPAs, District and Tehsil Nazims) are now jumping the PML-Q ship. A number of former PML-Q MNAs from the Punjab, including Dewan Ashiq Bukhari, Mian Khadim Hussain Wattoo, Mian Riaz Husain Pirzada, Sheikh Waqqas Akram, Asim Nazir, Sumera Malik and Muhammad Aslam Bodla, have already joined the PML-N while other MNAs of the Q-League like Khawaja Sheraz, Saddique Khan Baloch, Sahabzada Mehboob Sultan and Ghulam Bibi Baharwana are waiting in the wings to join Nawaz.
Prominent political analyst Rasul Bakhsh Rais terms it as the achievement of the PML-N. “The Sharifs very well understand the numbers game required in the parliamentary system and have successfully won back the support of influential political figures and dynastic political families in last few months. These electables may prove to be an asset for the party in the coming elections,” he asserts. Senator Mushahidullah of the PML-N claims that a large number of other PML-Q former lawmakers and leaders are set to join the N-League.
Apart from the PML-Q heavyweights, some former PPP parliamentarians are also joining the PML-N and recently, 14 such MPAs from Punjab announced joining the Sharifs. An influential political figure – Fakhar Imam – has also ditched the PPP for greener pastures. Interestingly, the PML-N accommodated Imam without his politician wife Syeda Abida Hussain.
Sources in the PPP told Pique that the seat sharing parleys between the PPP and the PML-Q were likely to end in a fiasco as with every passing day, the Chaudhrys were losing their winning horses and trust in the PPP too. Dr Hassan Askari Rizvi thinks that salvation for the PML-Q lies in its electoral alliance with the PPP. “If this arrangement continues, the PML-Q may win few seats,” he says.
Talking to Pique, PML-Q central leader Ahmed Yar Hiraj, who is also member of the PML-Q body negotiating seat adjustment deal with the PPP, said: “We are facing some problems but I am hopeful that our electoral alliance will stay intact.” In Hiraj’s opinion, the PTI would surely dent the PML-N vote bank in Punjab and KPK. Senator Mushahidullah, the PML-N’s secretary information, says that the electoral alliance of the PPP and the PML-Q was made to be broken. Former Federal Minister Firdous Ashiq Awan of the PPP values the PPP-PML-Q alliance and thinks that despite defections from the Chaudhrys’ camp, the PML-Q would be able to field a number of winning candidates in the elections.
The other former PML-Q parliamentarians, who, due to one reason or another, have failed to mend fences with the Sharifs, like Syed Faisal Saleh Hayat, are poised to contest polls independently. “The PML-Q is no more; it has outlived its shelf life. I may contest elections as an independent candidate but not on the PML-Q ticket,” the Makhdoom of Shah Jewna said.
In Punjab, and some pockets of KPK and Sindh, the PML-N also enjoys the clout of PML-Likeminded leaders like the Saifullahs, sons of General Akhtar Abdul Rehman (Humayun and Haroon Akhtar), Hamid Nasir Chattha, Gohar Ayub Khan and former Sindh chief minister Arbab Ghulam Rahim etc. Both factions of the Muslim League had sealed a seat adjustment deal in 2012 but nowadays they are facing multiple internal pressures in materializing the promises made with each other. A source in the PML-Likeminded told Pique that the PML-N was reluctant to give the promised number of seats of the national and provincial assemblies to the Likeminded faction of the Muslim League.
Talking to Pique, Humayun Akhtar Khan contradicted reports that there was some friction between the two factions. He further said that the PML-N was the leading party in the country. “The PML-N is the biggest party of Punjab; its mistakes (if committed) in selecting candidates may benefit the PPP in the Southern Punjab and the same mistakes in the North may benefit the PTI,” he observed. He claimed the PML-N would clean sweep elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) while the runner up party could be PTI.
The PML-Q forward bloc in the Punjab Assembly, which, in fact, enjoys the support of a majority of former MPAs elected on the bicycle symbol in the 2008 elections, has affiliated itself with the Sharifs, ever since they sabotaged the PPP-PML-Q plan of toppling Shahbaz Sharif’s government in February-March, 2009 and its members are all set to contest upcoming poll on the election symbol of the tiger. The majority of former District and Tehsil Nazims belonging to the PML-Q, who enjoy considerable political influence at grass-root levels have also joined Nawaz Sharif.
In Balochistan, the PPP faced political setback as a senior leader from Balochistan, Nawabzada Lashkari Raisani, along 22 party leaders, joined the PML-N. The party also enjoys goodwill of the nationalist parties of Balochistan and is negotiating seat adjustments with them. “We will win more seats than ever from Balochistan, where our party is gaining ground with every passing day,” says Senator Mushahidullah.
After temporarily losing ground in Hazara on the issue of renaming the NWFP province, the PML-N has somewhat controlled the damage and the joining of Chief of Sooba Hazara Tehrik (SHT) Sardar Yousaf along his friends and son Shahjahan Yousaf – former PML-Q MNA – has given a new lease of life to the N-League in the region. The joining of once Musharraf’s close aide (Ameer Muqam) has made N-League strong in Swat and Shangla.
In Sindh, the PML-N, the PML-Functional and the National People’s Party (NPP) have agreed to enter into an election alliance to give a tough fight to the Pakistan People’s Party, which had hitherto enjoyed unchallenged popularity in the interior of the province. Former Chairman Public Accounts Committee of the National Assembly and PPP leader Nadeem Afzal Chan does not agree with the PML-N’s claims that its alliances in Sindh would help split PPP’s vote bank.
Karachi is, and has always been, the weakest wicket for the PML-N to bat on. But, in case in a post-election scenario, it needs the support of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) to form a stable and strong government at the Centre, an alliance between the two could not be ruled out. Rasul Bakhsh Rais, Professor at LUMS, said that the biggest political challenge the PML-N faces was to prove itself as a national political party.
Though Dr Tahirul Qadri, after a much-hyped but flopped-show at Jinnah Avenue, Islamabad has lost strength to make a discernible dent in the PML-N vote bank, his continued tirade against the Sharifs may cause some damage to the PML-N in Punjab, where Qadri has the support of diehard followers. To counter Qadri and consequent split of the Barelvi vote bank, the PML-N is organizing Ulema, Mashaikh and Sajada Nashins, and has been successful, to a reasonable extent, in mustering support from the Sunni Tehreek and Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan (JUI-P). Meanwhile, all Wahabi (Ahl-e-Hadith) factions, including ultra-orthodox and Jihadi organization Jamaat-ud-Dawa have always been allied with the PML-N and fully supported its candidates in all previous general elections.
Apart from the PML-Q and PPP renegades who are joining the PML-N ranks, a number of PTI leaders and workers may join the Sharifs once the process of awarding tickets starts. Independent analysts believe that Khan’s party would have to suffer ‘serious jolts’ when thousands of aspirants will fail in securing party tickets for national and provincial assemblies seats and they might defect from the party in dejection. Some of the PTI heavyweights, like the Legharis from Dera Ghazi Khan, Sikandar Bosan from Multan and Khawaja Muhammad Khan Hoti from Mardan, have already parted ways with the PTI to join the Sharifs camp. Ahsan Iqbal, deputy secretary general PML-N, argues that at one stage all mature voters who have now fallen prey to Khan’s charisma, would come back to the PML-N camp when they realize that vote for PTI could help Zardari’s PPP.
Dr Shahzad Wasim believes that his party would face no mass defections. “Ideologically-driven people are standing behind Khan and his slogan of change. Some people who were chasing vested interests may part ways with the party but it will be the final acid test for the PTI to purify it from the opportunists,” he commented.
The PML-N leaders are trying to shape the contours of an alliance with the likeminded political forces not only to counter Khan’s tsunami but also for more moral and political support inside and outside the parliament in case the party forms the next government. The high-level committees of the PML-N and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) are holding talks to finalize seat adjustment.
The Jamaat-e-Islami’s Naib Ameer, Liaqat Baloch, said that his party’s talks over a seat sharing formula with the PML-N has remained fruitless. “The talks are underway with no breakthrough but our doors are also not closed for any other party,” he added. Interestingly the JI has also engaged the PTI for a seat-sharing adjustment. The PML-N has also mended fences with Maulana Fazlur Rehman and talks are underway for a seat-adjustment between the PML-N and the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazl).
The PPP’s bid to deprive the PML-N of support in the Southern Punjab with the announcement to carve a Bahawalpur Janoobi Punjab (BJP) province has done but little harm to the Sharifs as the contours of the new province as crafted by the PPP and its allies were even rejected by the people of Bahawalpur, Multan, Bhakkar and Mianwali. The PPP’s effort of appeasing the region by choosing Makhdoom Ahmed Mehmood for Punjab’s gubernatorial slot on the recommendation of disqualified premier – Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani – has so far not paid off as well as it was conceived.
In Bahawalpur division, Muttahida Bahawalpur Mahaz (United Bahawalpur Front) led by Nawab Salahuddin Abbasi which demands the restoration of provincial status of once Bahawalpur State is likely to divide the PML-N vote bank, but it will also cause trouble for the PPP, which traditionally secures seats from the Rahim Yar Khan District. In the 2008 elections, the PPP secured four out of the total five National Assembly seats from Rahim Yar Khan, while the PML-N secured only one.
Some independent analysts as well as PPP circles fear that due to Nawaz Sharif’s anti-establishment stance, the PML-N may not have smooth sailing before and after elections. Nadeem Afzal Chan believes that Musharraf’s return would also damage the PML-N. “He will resort to a tirade against the Sharifs, and in retaliation, the PML-N’s command would criticize the army generals. This will widen the gulf between the N-League and the military establishment,” he predicted. PML-N’s Ahsan Iqbal, however, rebuts the impression saying, “Musharraf’s homecoming will benefit us.”
There is, as they say, no last word in politics. But given the variables, a PML-N victory in the upcoming elections is a likely, if not definite, outcome. The only possible spanner in the works is the PTI factor. The motivation of newly registered voters makes this a bit of a blind spot for political analysts, though many would concur on the League’s march to power even after taking this into account.
The writer is the managing editor.
