A Twist of Fate
On June 5th, a unit of 111 Brigade welcomed Nawaz Sharif and family back into the power echelons almost an hour after Mr. Sharif took oath from President Asif Ali Zardari and became prime minister for an unprecedented third time.
It was a bittersweet twist of fate for Mr. Sharif.
Almost 14 years ago, he was dethroned from power by the same 111 Brigade, which at that time was led by Brigadier Salahuddin Satti, who later retired as a Lt. General and served an ambassadorial term.
Earlier, at the Presidency, people noticed that Mr. Sharif had a serious look as he met President Zardari, who made an extra effort to showcase his characteristic Cheshire smile. Mr. Sharif maintained the same air of seriousness as he met Gen. Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani, the army chief.
“He just exchanged hands, with no proper smile on his face,” said an eyewitness to the meeting between Mr. Sharif and Gen. Kayani, requesting anonymity.
This was not the first time when Mr. Sharif indicated that he wants his relationship with the top military generals within the constitutional limits.
An Incident of the Past
Mr. Sharif sent a similar message to Gen. Kayani loud and clear, outlining his preference that the relationship between him and the army chief will remain strictly within the confines of constitution and government protocols.
In the winter of 2009, soon after the disclosure that Shahbaz Sharif and Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan had secretly met with Gen. Kayani twice, a messenger from Gen. Kayani tried to arrange a meeting between the army chief and Mr. Sharif.
According to sources, Mr. Sharif, with an expressionless face, posed a question to the messenger: “Does the army chief have prime minister’s approval?”
The messenger had no answer to this unnerving question and went back to Rawalpindi. After a couple of days, a similar message was again sent across. This time Gen. Kayani had requested permission to visit Raiwind. This message got a similar, disapproving response.
The army chief should route through the prime minister if he wants a meeting, Mr. Sharif told his political aides.
After spending time in exile, reminiscing over the mistakes he made prior to the 1999 military coup, Mr. Sharif seems to have come of age. He is convinced that he erred in maintaining contacts with Pervez Musharraf, who was corps commander Mangla before his elevation as the army chief.
A retired senior military officer, however, gave an entirely different account of the reason Gen. Kayani wanted to meet Mr. Sharif.
“A retired Pakistani diplomat had a meeting with Hasan Nawaz, the son of Mr. Sharif, in London. He said that Gen. Kayani met with Shahbaz Sharif several times but never contacted us. This complaint prompted Gen. Kayani to take the initiative to try to meet with Nawaz Sharif,” the retired military official said.
The State of Affairs Now
After the first civilian transition of power in the country’s history in June, everything appears normal between Mr. Sharif and the army chief. However, Gen. Kayani is known to have exhibited his reservations towards Mr. Sharif in the past.
“Nawaz Sharif and Gen. Kayani have very good relations,” said Senator Pervaiz Rashid, the federal minister for information, in an interview with PIQUE. “The credit of a smooth transition of power goes to all stakeholders.”
As the minister of information, it is the job of Mr. Rashid to gloss things over.
The fact is that Mr. Sharif has passed strict instructions that ‘no cabinet member will visit the General Headquarters or meet with any senior army officer without the prior consent of the Prime Minister”, according to sources.
Mr. Sharif has also decided to keep the portfolio of ministry of defense. He wants to further strengthen the Defense Committee of the Cabinet and the office of the National Security Advisor. He has made it clear that he wants to uphold civilian supremacy.
The Toughest Decision
Soon after the honeymoon period of assuming power comes to a close, Mr. Sharif has to make the toughest decision of his tenure. Gen. Kayani retires in November and the question of his successor is of paramount importance. It is highly unlikely that Gen. Kayani will get another extension, according to sources. Some people believe Mr. Sharif will announce the successor to the current army chief far earlier, as he had done in the case of Gen. Asif Nawaz, who took over from Gen. Mirza Aslam Beg in 1991.
According to government rules and regulations, the Ministry of Defense provides names of three senior most generals for the coveted post of the army chief.
Sources claim that the Prime Minister intends to remove Lt Gen (r) Asif Yasin Malik, the current secretary of defense, before he makes up his mind on the next army chief.
Gen. Malik is a trusted aide to Gen. Kayani and has earlier served as Corps Commander, Peshawar and Deputy D.G in the ISI.
Mr. Rashid, the information minister, however denies that the prime minister intends to remove Gen. Malik. “There is no need for such a change,” he said.
Who will become the next ARMY CHIEF?
On June 20th, Gen. Kayani visited South Waziristan. A group of journalists also accompanied him from Islamabad. When this reporter asked Gen. Kayani if he plans to take another extension from the civilian government, the army chief refused to answer and quickly walked away, without uttering a single word.
After Gen. Kayani retires in November, the three senior most Lt. Generals in the army are in the run to become the Chief of Army Staff.
The doves and hawks in Mr. Sharif’s kitchen cabinet have already started deliberating on the pros and cons of each of the three Lt. Generals.
Lt. Gen Haroon Aslam, the senior most general, is a Special Services Group Commando. He is known as ‘a dashing officer’ and has to his credit leading the Swat military operation. Incidentally, Pervez Musharraf was also from the SSG group. It remains a moot question if Nawaz Sharif would be comfortable with yet another Commando general.
PML-N has already announced that it will follow the seniority list. But in the power corridors, nothing is as obvious as it seems.
“We will follow the principle of seniority, unless there is a big reason otherwise,” Senator Rashid, the Information Minister, said in his exclusive interview for PIQUE in his chamber at Parliament House recently.
The second senior most officer is Lt. General Rashad Mehmood, currently serving as the powerful Chief of General Staff at the GHQ, Rawalpindi. He has the reputation of being a reserved officer. He is also known as a patient listener and less talkative. In many ways, he is like General Kayani.
According to sources, Lt Gen. Rashad Mehmood is the preference of Gen. Kayani for the new army chief.
Historically, most of the CGS went on to become the army chiefs. Gen. Asif Nawaz was CGS before he was elevated to become the army chief. Similarly, Gen. Waheed Kakar chose his CGS, Lt. Gen Jahangir Karamat, to become the army chief.
If Nawaz Sharif follows this military tradition then Lt.General Rashid Mahmood should become the Army Chief after Gen. Kayani completes his second extension.
Interestingly, many at the GHQ have already started giving Gen. Mehmood an unannounced protocol and respect as the next chief.
The third most senior officer in is Lt.Gen Raheel Sharif. He is the brother of Maj. Shabir Sharif, a martyr and war hero of 1965. Lt. Gen Sharif is a resident of Model Town Lahore and, therefore, a neighbor of the Sharifs. However, sources say his chances are very bleak and only sheer luck can push him as the new army chief.
There are two dark horses in the race: Lt. Gen. Tariq Khan, currently serving as Corps Commander, Mangla; Lt. Gen Zahirul Islam, the Director General of Inter-Services Intelligence Diectorate.
Who will Nawaz consult ?
Mr. Sharif has a habit of holding wide-ranging consultations. But on a matter as delicate and as fateful as the new army chief, he is expected to proceed with utmost caution.
“Prime Minister may, and he should, form a committee for the final selection of the new army chief. Seniority should be given importance because whenever it is violated in the past, country faced crisis,” said Gen.Zia ud Din Khawaja a close aide of Nawaz Sharif and former ISI chief whose controversial appointment as the army chief in 1999 led to the military coup.
Sources claim that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is most likely to make his final decision after deliberating and consulting with his brother Shahbaz Sharif and relative Ishaq Dar, the finance minister.
Lt. Gen Rashad Mehmood is most likely to succeed but sources say Lt. Gen. Haroon Aslam might pull a surprise.
Was Kayani onboard?
On June 24, Mr. Sharif announced that his government will initiate a treason case against Gen. Musharraf. “Musharraf has to answer for his acts,” Mr. Sharif said in a speech to the national assembly.
Immediately, there were concerns about an impending clash with the military. After all, no military dictator of the past has had to answer for his transgressions and violations of the constitution. Within the ranks, however, there is unease over the way Gen. Musharraf has been treated by the courts. The sight of a former army chief dragged through the courts is unacceptable to many. Gen. Musharraf has resisted efforts to make a deal and go back into exile.
In a recent Corps Commanders’ meeting, one of the senior corps commanders was heavily critical of the way Gen. Musharraf was being treated, according to highly placed sources. Gen. Kayani, however, overruled his objections.
Pervaiz Rashid, the information minister, said the decision to try Gen. Musharraf under art. 6 of the constitution was unanimously taken by the civilian and military leadership.
“Everyone has taken oath under the constitution,” Mr. Rashid, the information minister said. “Everyone understands that the solution of all problems lies in the implementation of the constitution.”
The writer is an investigative journalist based in Islamabad.
