The PPP-ANP-MQM alliance had its share of setbacks due to many factors — ranging from incumbency to hindrances in the political campaign due to militant threats and failure to resolve core issues in the country.
However, the MQM has managed to sustain its position in Karachi and Hyderabad due to the highly-polarized political environment that has kept its ethnic support base intact, divided opposition, split votes against them in closely-contested constituencies and strong arm tactics in securing a very high voter turnout.
In the 2002 elections, the alliance of religio-political parties and, in 2008, the PPP and ANP had managed to wrest some of the constituencies from the MQM. In 2013, the unprecedented emergence of the Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf in Karachi, caused panic in the MQM rank and file. This led to MQM chief’s bullyragging attacks on the media, and massive reshuffling and restructuring in the party.
Imran Khan viz-à-viz MQM
In the aftermath of May 12, 2007 violence and killing of political workers, Imran Khan vowed to take the MQM chief to court for his alleged involvement in the Karachi violence. He approached the British police with complaints and made pyretic statements that caused outrage among MQM enthusiasts. Soon graffiti disparaging Imran Khan’s past playboy image sprang up all over Karachi.
Initially, it was reported that dossiers with evidence against the MQM had been submitted to Scotland Yard. Later, the PTI admitted that the British police had shown their inability to commence proceedings against Altaf Hussain due to a lack of cooperation on the part of the Pakistani authorities in collecting evidence against the MQM and its leader.
PTI chairman’s claims in this regard have been paradoxical: he has said on various occasions that they have submitted evidence against Altaf and MQM, but also admitted in TV talk shows that he had no evidence against the MQM supremo or his party implicating them in Karachi violence.
Rise of PTI
With the emergence of PTI as a political player in mid-2011, the inclusion of seasoned politicians from other parties compelled PTI to broaden its views regarding the political scenario and adopt a more pragmatic approach. This helped ease tensions with the MQM.
PTI had realized that issuing fiery statements against the MQM, a major player in Karachi and politics of coalitions at the provincial and federal levels will no longer help, and they needed to have interaction with each other, keeping an eye on the future prospects and post-election scenario. An MQM delegation met PTI senior leaders Javed Hashmi and Shah Mehmood Qureshi and aimed to interact further.
The MQM understood that PTI was not a threat to their vote bank in Karachi. However, the PTI public meeting on December 25, 2011 in Karachi was an indicator of their potential support base; most of the participants were Pashtun, Hindko and Punjabi communities. It was predicted that PTI would affect ANP and religio-political parties’ vote bank in Karachi, which will further divide the vote against the MQM helping them in closely-contested constituencies.
Echoes of tacit agreement
Over the years, PTI chairman Imran Khan has been one of a favourite guest at the news channels. He enjoyed generous media coverage with mostly solo interviews and live broadcast of public rallies due to his popularity and commercial interests of the media. His party officials, too, were part of almost every talkshow since the demonstration of public support at Lahore’s ‘game-changing’ public meeting.
Imran and his comrades have talked exhaustively on almost every issue from the war-on-terror, economy, corruption, and drone attacks to NATO supplies etc, and have criticized the ruling allies for the violence in Karachi. But, unlike in the past, they abstained from singling out MQM and its leadership for their main role regarding peace in Karachi.
Hasan Mansoor, a political commentator, hinted at a tacit agreement or mutual understanding between the two at some level. MQM and PTI refrained from using harsh words against each other. It was baffling to see that PTI wasn’t keen in campaigning like it did in Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, while it has a potential support base in highly urbanized vicinities, support among the elite, middle class localities and hugely-populated suburbs with discontented voters of the ruling alliance and religio-political parties.
During his election rallies across Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Imran didn’t spare the PPP, PML-N, ANP and JUI-F leaderships in criticizing and passing quizzical comments at them, but he did not take pot shots at the MQM until the end of 2011.
According to a researcher and author of a book on Karachi, Ziaur Rahman, it was a clever strategy. The PTI knew they will get votes from the disgruntled supporters of ANP and PPP and avoided infuriating MQM by providing it an opportunity to employ its usual tactics. Another aspect which he has highlighted is MQM’s efforts to create an impression that they have support in various cities of other provinces.
Shock and awe
The strategy paid off and PTI managed to secure votes across the ethnic divide in the city. It has won PS-93, clinched by ANP in 2008 and MMA in 2002. However, the Jamaat-e-Islami has filed a complaint and pointed the finger at the ECP staff for changing the results in favour of Syed Hafizuddin. The results were withheld by the ECP, but securing 15,000 votes in a Pashtun- and Hindko-dominated constituency by a PTI candidate of Bihari accent is not far from expectations.
PTI’s provincial spokesperson and resident of PS-93 Dawa Khan Sabir rejected these claims by Jamaat-e-Islami, which boycotted the electoral process as a protest against rigging and irregularities across the city.
In NA-239, another constituency won by the PPP in 2008, MMA in 2002 and PML-N in 1997 and 1993, too, had its share of surprises, when PTI candidate Subhan Ali Sahil almost won at most polling stations.
“We have won it almost everywhere except at some polling stations located in two union councils of Baldia town where the MQM surprisingly secured 39,000 votes,” says Sahil.
MQM sympathizers say they won votes of the Katchi Rabita Committee, which has suffered at the hands of PPP-backed People’s Aman Committee. A local leader of JUI-F has endorsed this claim, who, too, had secured 20,000 votes there. It seems mending ties with PAC has resulted in Abdul Qadir Patel losing from his constituency.
But the surprise package was NA-248 Lyari and adjacent areas, where 28,000 votes for him left even the PTI circles dazed.
“We are going to court against MQM victory in NA-239,” says Sahil, a former provincial president of Pakhtoon Student Federation (PkSF) and member of Afzal Khan Lala-led Pakhtunkhwa Qaumi Party (PQP) before he joined PTI in 1999.
NA-250: Centre of gravity
NA-250 is one of those constituencies that have always seen unpredictable election outcomes. MQM won it in 2008 against a PPP candidate, well-known industrialist Mukhtiar Beg, who, too, complained after the results in 2008 but MQM candidate Khushbakht Shujaat had rejected the allegations. Earlier in 2002, it was won by a Jamaat-e-Islami candidate ex-Mayor Karachi Abdus Sattar Afghani.
PTI’s senior leader and founding member Dr Arif Alvi and Jamaat-e-Islami ex-mayor Naimatullah Khan claimed massive support here. Thanks to ECP’s mismanagement, many polling stations had huge crowd of voters but there was no staff and polling material. Even though three hours were added to the polling time, but the results were rejected.
The PTI took to the streets with rallies and sit-ins across the city which angered the MQM leader Altaf Hussain; his emotional rants were broadcast live on TV channels which created some legal issues for the British national. Soon the MQM co-ordination committee managed to temper frayed nerves.
The PTI demanded re-election across the city but the ECP announced re-polling in only 43 polling stations in NA-250 and provincial constituencies such as PS-112 and PS-113. MQM demanded re-election in the whole of NA-250, but its rejection by the ECP led to a boycott of the re-polling process. The PTI managed to win all three constituencies.
Jumping the gun
The night before re-polling, PTI senior leader and chief polling agent at NA-250 Zahra Shahid Hussain was killed by unknown assailants. The tragedy was condemned by almost all political parties, including MQM. Imran Khan appeared to jump the gun in accusing MQM chief Altaf Hussain of involvement in Zahra Shahid’s murder and asked the British government to take action against him. The next day, lower turnout was seen at many constituencies due to the tense situation and violent protests in Hyderabad, another strong hold of MQM.
Hussain and Farooq Sattar reacted strongly to the allegations, with Sattar vowing to sue the PTI chairman for his defamatory remarks against the MQM chief. In retaliation, Sattar hit the PTI chairman below the belt in trying to reopen his Corinthian past. An irate Hussain meanwhile, took on the MQM Coordination Committee for failing to defend him against the PTI’s allegations. This caused outrage among workers who tried to attack members of the Coordination Committee, but in strong arm tactics typical of the MQM, the media was prevented from sharing the evidence.
PTI broadening support base
PTI victory in Karachi generated mixed response among the political parties and media. PPP and ANP pointed out the lack of a level playing field during electioneering due to militant threats. The main factor was their tacit approval of criminal activities and backing such elements, their inability to stop violence against their workers and ordinary people. This cost them the constituencies they had won in 2008. The PPP’s approval of candidates backed by disbanded PAC helped them win in Lyari but they lost three closely-contested provincial and three national constituencies.
The same happened to ANP, which lost PS-93 and PS-128 this time while the extreme positions adopted by Jamaat-e-Islami and JUI-F led their supporters to PTI, even though it has a similar stance on many issues like militancy, Taliban and war on terror.
The new MQM
The MQM, after the initial bullyragging by its chief, responded well to the PTI threat in many constituencies and support base, which are its traditional strongholds and supporters. The PTI has managed to get huge votes in constituencies comprising localities like Nazimabad, Paposh Nagar, New Karachi, Liaqatabad, PECHS society, Gulbahar, Manghopir, Orangi town and even areas around MQM headquarters Nine Zero.
Another interesting aspect pertains to the votes of the Shia localities, which, according to some analysts, have gone to PTI due to its chairman’s remarks against the banned and rechristened sectarian organizations like SSP/ASWJ. However, they did not responded favourably to Farooq Sattar’s remarks after the Abbas Town blast when he had tried to make an ethnic issue out of the Shia killings.
Altaf Hussain reacted by dissolving all MQM administrative bodies in Pakistan and Britain, suspending memberships of some leaders and expelling its convener Karachi Tanzeemi Committee Hammad Siddiqui from the party. Hussain also warned against criminal activities, land grabbing, extortions and forced donations from business communities.
It is to be seen how PTI consolidates its support in Karachi and MQM and other parties prevent supporters from going the PTI way.
The writer is a journalist based in Karachi.
