Fahd Husain
Asif Zardari is defining the political narrative, Imran Khan is charting the moral narrative, and Nawaz Sharif is constantly playing catch up. That sums up the politics of the PML(N), surprising for a party which has ruled Pakistan twice and still commands the largest province.
Something, somewhere has gone horribly wrong for the Sharif brothers.
The PML(N) is in crisis mode. Sandwiched between the Machiavellian moves of Zardari and the uplifting anti-status quo rhetoric of Imran Khan, the PML(N) finds itself desperately searching for an identity within the transforming political spectrum. The first casualty of this crisis within the party has been the leader itself. No, Nawaz Sharif is still the undisputed commander of his forces, but his political stance, rooted in a few-found moral framework, has been shattered by the unrelenting demands of realpolitik. After all these years, Sharif has been forced to concede that he must cut deals if his party has to survive the relentless onslaught from Zardari and Imran. Sharif, the moral statesman is no more. Instead, Sharif the no-holds-barred politician is re-emerging from a self-imposed hibernation.
But is it too late?
The answer is anything but simple. Party members talk of intense debate and discussion among the senior leadership about this predicament. One group within the party – the realists – have been arguing for months now that the party must come down from its high horse and get into the trenches with Zardari. They say they have pleaded again and again with the leadership about the need to stop complaining, and start doing. Outwitted by Zardari at almost every step, Nawaz Sharif only recently has decided to change the direction of his politics.
“It’s actually very simple,” says a PML(N) MNA, “we need as many seats as we can get, any which way we can.” With elections looming on the horizon, this approach has finally been adopted by the party leadership. The problem is that compromises which had been ruled out in the past, have to be made now.
The deal with the Likeminded group is a prime example of such a compromise. Former Musharraf loyalists – who used to be the target of Sharif’s ire, are now supping with him. Till recently, Sharif was proclaiming loudly that Musharraf’s men had no place in his camp. These people had, after all, ditched Sharif in trying times. But the force of circumstances has compelled him to do a volte face. The sight of Sharif’s old nemesis Hamid Nasir Chattha sitting with him and announcing an alliance was unthinkable. Pride has been swallowed on both sides for the sake of staying politically relevant. Amir Muqam is yet another example. One of Musharraf’s closest confidantes, and then Chaudhries’ point man, he has now been embraced by Sharif. Principles have been trumped by the dictates of realpolitik.
The inclusive approach of Sharif however does not guarantee consistency of policy. This is the other major problem dogging the party. Blowing hot and cold has somehow become the hallmark of a party undergoing an internal struggle and constantly finding itself behind the political curve. The party started off with becoming a friendly opposition, then realized it was being duped and bared its fangs but then kept on giving the government opportunities to extricate itself from difficult spots. The logic: save the system. Well the system got saved, but the politics of the PML(N) got hit for a towering six.
So the party began to clutch at straws as it went into panic mode. It fulminated against Zardari and launched a movement against him, only to step back and call off the agitation. It threatened to resign from the assemblies but then realized it may end up being the loser. It embraced the Memogate scandal and got egg on its face as the case collapsed under the weight of its own contradictions. Then the party latched on to the Prime Minister’s case and after the Supreme Court judgement convicting Gilani, pronounced him “ex-prime minister”. The party then kicked off a series of protest rallies which gradually petered out. Meanwhile within the parliament, PML(N) members said they would not allow the prime minister to attend the proceedings, but can do little more than shout and sloganeer as Gilani continues to occupy the seat of the leader of the house. Maximalist posturing seems to be taking the party nowhere.
As a result, a siege mentality appears to be developing within the party. The Seraiki province episode illustrates the confusion emanating from such a mentality. The party consistently opposed the carving up of their Punjab province, but perhaps failed to realize that a political moment was upon them. The PML(Q) first started talking about a separate province in the south, and then slowly the PPP jumped on to the bandwagon, sensing a electoral bonanza. Things moved fast. PPP announced it was in favour of bifurcating Punjab and the PML(N) realized to its horror that once again it was playing catch up. By the time the party pushed through a resolution through the Punjab Assembly, it was too late. PPP had owned the issue.
Things were equally bad on the other front. As Sharif was forced to abdicate his moral high horse, Imran jumped on and occupied that seat. Suddenly, the PTI was the party of change, and the PML(N) was relegated to the corner assigned for status quo forces. Then Imran stormed Sharif’s urban fortresses, whipping up support in areas which formed the traditional PML(N) stronghold. As the PPP squeezed the Sharifs in rural Punjab, Imran assaulted them in urban locales. Forced to fight a two-front war, the party appeared to lose focus.
Nawaz Sharif still has time to get his act together. He has a solid party structure in place and attracts electables. His forays into Sindh – belated as they might be – are signifying a national approach and reflect a positive strategy. He still has fierce loyalty among many urban constituencies and groups, and he and his men are adept at thana-katchery politics. The elections are still some months away and the party can pull itself together for a solid electoral performance.
But for this to happen, the PML(N) has to answer one simple question. In the shifting sands of Pakistani politics, what does it truly stand for today?
